India’s new demographic challenge

India has the largest population in the world today, at 1.46 billion people and around a billion in the working age of 15 to 64 years. India overtook China on both counts recently. While India’s population is still growing due to improved longevity, it is important to note that the number of births peaked quarter of a century ago, at 29 million in 2001 and is estimated at about 23 million for 2024.

The single most important factor driving demographics is a country’s TFR (total fertility rate) defined as the number of live births per female of reproductive age. Contrary to popular belief, India’s TFR has crashed below replacement rates, i.e. the level at which a population replaces itself. The globally accepted replacement rate is 2.1, but this number is true for developed economies where infant mortality rates are low and the sex ratio at birth has been stable.

As per the WHO, infant mortality rates (deaths in the first year after birth) in India stands at 24.5 deaths per 1,000 live births (2023) despite large declines, while it is less than 5.5 in developed countries. Moreover, India also witnessed decades when the sex ratio at birth was skewed towards males. This has improved now, but it has had the long run effect of a reduced pipeline of women of reproductive age. Thus, India’s required replacement rate is higher at around 2.25 in our view. The gap between India’s TFR and the replacement rate, therefore, is worse than appears at first glance.

Falling fertility is now well-known global phenomena and has been falling faster than the commonly used United Nations (UN) population forecasts. We had pointed this out in a paper published in 2013 (“Predictions of a Rogue Demographer”, The Wide Angle series, Deutsche Bank Research). We had argued then that world population would peak much earlier than predicted by the UN which expected then that population would keep growing well into the next century. Latest revisions by UN have come closer to our predictions, but we still think the numbers are overestimated.

The UN makes a fundamental assumption, that countries with very low TFRs, over time, recover back to the replacement level. So far no country with lower than replacement rate TFR, has made a recovery back to 2.1. Global TFR in 2024 stood at 2.2, with more than two thirds of the global population having TFR below replacement rates. UN now started to agree that, for countries with very low TFR, the recovery back to 2.1 is highly unlikely in the next 30 years.

The second dimension of population dynamics is longevity. Indian population is currently growing primarily because we are living longer. Our life expectancy at birth (LEB) was 41 years in 1950, 63 years in 2000 and about 72.5 today. Globally, LEB stands at 73.5 years today, as compared to 66.4 years in 2000. While living longer and healthier indicates human progress, when coupled with crashing fertility rates, it leads to shrinking the youth population, aging the workforce and rapidly expanding the number of elderly. Economically, this leads to a higher dependency ratio, higher healthcare costs, and a host of fiscal challenges. Moreover, in many countries populations will now rapidly decline since an aging population will see rising death rates at some point.

Populations of China (TFR: 1.0, LEB: 78) has already peaked at 1.4 billion in 2021 and will likely fall to 512 million by 2100 as per our estimates, 633 million by UN estimates. South Korea (TFR 0.7, LEB: 84.4) peaked at 52 million in 2020 and is likely to fall to 22 million by 2100 (UN estimates). This is no trivial shift and will have major socio-economic impact.

According to our revised calculations, India will likely peak at around 1.67 billion in 2055. This is earlier than the UN forecast of 1.7 in 2061. Similarly, we think that overall world population will peak at 9.8 billion in 2062 compared to the UN’s current prediction of 10.3 billion in 2084.

The third dimension of the challenge is the geographical spread of the TFR decline in India. Amongst the 21 largest states, with more than 10 million in population, only three - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand - have TFR above the replacement rates at 2.4, 3.0 and 2.3 respectively. The relatively wealthier and urbanised states of southern and western India are now well below replacement levels. However, a relatively poor state like West Bengal also has a TFR of 1.6, a level that looks like East Asia.

A new survey by UN in 2025 of 14 countries (based on interviews) representing a third of the global population, looked at how people make reproductive choices. The survey found that 14% of Indian curtailed the number of children based on advice from medical advisors, a much higher rate than the average of 5% for all 14 countries. In other words, population control is still the default in India’s medical system and in the policy incentives.

Till a few years ago, the narrative on demography was an alarmist one of impending Malthusian explosion. Policies were unequivocally designed to supress TFR. However, with the situation reversing, it is time to roll back all population control policies. This should be done even in Bihar and UP as they now singlehandedly supporting the national average. Similarly, state governments need to be pragmatic about merging primary schools where the number of students are too low to be viable.

(Sanjeev Sanyal is Member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, Sayandeb Banerjee is an independent researcher. All opinions are personal).