How a rapidly changing society may confront its elite

How a rapidly changing society may confront its elite

India is facing a “crisis of the elite’. In recent months, a series of scandals has seriously undermined the standing of the elite in the eyes of the general population. No matter what one thinks of the merits or demerits of each accusation, one cannot deny that the common citizen now looks with suspicion at those in positions of power in government, corporate houses, media and even sports bodies. This is a serious matter at the best of times but these are no ordinary times. As I have argued in my last column (Rise of tomorrow’s middle class, BS, November 10, 2010), economic growth and urbanisation are radically changing Indian society as a young and upwardly mobile population migrates into our towns and cities. This new middle class is neither held back by the patronage systems of the past, nor does it enjoy the cosy relationship between the old middle class and the elite. Conditions are ripe for a structural shift.

The above situation is not unique to Indian history. Almost all countries face it at some point in their socio-economic journey from an equilibrium based on the traditional patronage-based relationships of the village/clan/family to one based on modern institutions and the rule of law. The exact nature and circumstances of the shift, however, vary considerably. Sometimes the change is relatively peaceful, while in others it can be violent. There are even instances where the incumbent elite manages to maintain control by demonstrably acting on the key demands of the general populace.

How elites are replaced
Till the early 19th century, British politics was extremely corrupt. The old aristocracy did not just dominate the House of Lords (which was much more powerful then) but also used its influence to get relatives, friends and family retainers elected to the House of Commons. This was done by exploiting a key institutional weakness — the existence of “rotten boroughs”. These were constituencies that had been depopulated by shifts in population since medieval times. The few remaining voters could be simply bought by the rich and powerful. Old Sarum in Wiltshire, for instance, had three houses and seven voters, but sent two members to Parliament.

Not surprisingly, this system was open to abuse. The Duke of Newcastle is said to have controlled seven such boroughs, each with two representatives. Those who had amassed wealth from business or from the colonies were also able to buy themselves a seat at the table. On the other end of the scale, large and populous industrial cities like Birmingham and Manchester were poorly represented. The new middle and working classes created by the Industrial Revolution strongly resented this and began to push for change. In 1819, a crowd of 60,000 gathered in Manchester to demand reform but were charged by the cavalry. Fifteen people were killed and many more injured in what is remembered as the Peterloo Massacre.

The political situation was volatile and, given the recent memory of the violent French Revolution, the British elite reluctantly agreed to reform. The process ultimately resulted in the Reform Act of 1832 that redrew the constituencies as well as extended the vote to the new middle class (the working class and women would have to wait). Of course, the British transition was relatively smooth. There are many examples where the change was sudden and violent — for instance the Russian Revolution. In Germany, the old Prussian elite had successfully managed the country’s industrialisation in the late 19th century but was discredited by the defeat of the First World War and the economic hardships that followed. The vacuum was filled by Nazism and a new equilibrium would only be established after the Second World War.

Similar shifts have been witnessed repeatedly in Asia. Japan saw two shifts — the Meiji Restoration of 1868 and then again after defeat in 1945. South Korea was ruled by generals till as recently as 1987 when widespread student protests finally brought in democracy. Many of the country’s top corporate bosses would be prosecuted and punished in subsequent years. People tend to forget that Indonesia witnessed the shift as recently as 1997 when an economic collapse pulled down the old elite.

A little over a decade after initiating economic reforms, China too would confront this moment during the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. The government would put it down with an iron fist but has since maintained a single-minded focus on economic growth. Although corruption is a major problem, the Chinese authorities take care to visibly punish the worst excesses. Most importantly, the leadership generally tries to ensure that the Communist Party hierarchy remains open to new talent so that the political elite does not fossilise or get taken over by a coterie.

An Indian Revolution?
All societies, even communist ones, need an elite to function effectively. Except in totalitarian regimes, this is based on some degree of acceptance by the general populace. In turn, this is derived from the belief that the elite is broadly “fair” in its dealings. The problem with the recent series of scandals is that the average Indian does not believe this anymore. As in 19th century Britain, economic growth and urbanisation are creating a new middle class that will soon begin to question the power structure. So what could happen?

It is impossible to exactly tell when the shift will happen or what form it will take. Given India’s democratic traditions, it is probable — but not certain — that the change will be smooth and peaceful. However, unless the existing elite shows a willingness to visibly punish the guilty and clear the air, we could see very unpredictable changes. New political leaders and movements could suddenly emerge to capture the popular imagination and sweep aside the old arrangements. As we saw in the case of Nazi Germany, such new movements need not necessarily lead to a good outcome. Far safer if the existing elite itself carried out the purge and then opens itself out to new talent.