The results of the Brexit referendum have already crashed the world’s financial markets and forced British Prime Minister David Cameron to resign.

So, was the vote for Brexit driven by irrational xenophobia? What are the long-term implications of Britain leaving the EU? What political lessons can the rest of the world learn? It is very likely that the unwinding of Britain’s relationship with Europe will involve some pain. The ‘Remain’ campaign hammered in this point.

But, ironically, a majority of those who voted for ‘Leave’ would probably agree too. However, such historic events occur once in a generation and cannot be judged in terms of GDP growth rates for a couple of years.

It Must Have Been Love… Existing economic theory has little to say about the long-term impact of such structural shifts. This is why this mandate should be analysed through the lens of history, not economics. So, let it be clear that the voters were not being irrational by ignoring the economic pundits, as it is the wrong framework of reference.

One of the lessons of long-range history is that such shifts can trigger aspiral of events with major consequences. The decision to allow border crossings through the Berlin Wall in 1989, for instance, led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The problem is that ex ante it is very difficult to predict the chain of events.

It is quite possible that after Brexit, the EU will reform itself and stage a comeback while Britain becomes a backwater struggling to hold on to Scotland. However, we could also see Europe get gridlocked by competing regional demands while Britain uses its new-found policy flexibility to rebuild itself.

A completely different set of outcomes is also possible. Given the radical uncertainties of long-range history, it is not irrational for people to want to take control of their destiny even if it increases short-term risk. As an analogy, think of the British voter as the crew of a ship that is slowly drifting towards dangerous rocks. One option is to do nothing and hope the current will change and guide the ship away from danger. The other is to take control of the ship even if it means that one has to steer into a big storm.

Choosing the latter is not irrational. So, it is quite possible that history will judge Britain’s decision kindly. After all, when Henry VIII opted for Brexit in the 16th century, the Englishwere threatened with eternal damnation. As it turned out, it was the great Holy Roman Empire that was wrecked by civil war and bankruptcy.

Even as we hold our judgement on the long-term consequences of Brexit, there are some important political lessons that can be drawn.

As others have pointed out, the vote for Brexit is part of a revolt against a globalised elite that is concentrated in New York, London and Silicon Valley, but also sprinkled across Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, Paris, south Mumbai and central Delhi.

It includes members of the political class, business, media, NGOs and elite academia. United by Ivy League and Oxbridge education, conferences in Switzerland and webs of influence, this elite justifies itself as working ‘to make the world a better place’. The non-elite have now begun to ask why those who claim to be giving away their money to improve the world need to protect their wealth in overseas tax havens or in charitable foundations. Surely, in an age of public indebtedness, the first step to improving the world is to pay one’s fair share of taxes.

…But It’s Over Now There is a suspicion that the money is used, instead, to buy influence through awards, financial grants, international conferences, buying media coverage and so on.

Justified or not, this rage against the global elite is a reality across the world and is partly responsible for the rise of Donald Trump in the US. A key mistake of Britain’s ‘Remain’ campaign was to ask members of the same elite — from US President Barack Obama to celebrities from the entertainment industry — to campaign for them. Far from helping the cause, it entrenched suspicions that the international elite was pushing its own agenda.

This feeling was further inflamed when media pundits repeatedly stated that only the uneducated and the poor wanted to leave the EU, as if their lack of degrees made their opinions worthless.

The key lesson is that one cannot win over voters by patronisingly speaking down to them or implying that they are stupid or racist. Trump may be an unlikely and flawed leader of an anti-establishment movement but he has touched on underlying concerns that need to be taken seriously, not dismissed with disdain.

Meanwhile, the rise in uncertainty brings both risks and opportunities for India. On the one hand, export markets may be affected by a lack of confidence. On the other, commodity prices and global interest rates may remain low for an extended period. Indian policymakers should use the opportunity to cut interest rates and get the banking system going.

Brexit is neither good nor bad for India. It’s mostly about how the country responds to the new situation.